Vancouver Canucks All-Star Break Report

Leigh Ramsden lives in Vancouver and is an avid Canucks fan, having been a partial season ticket holder for over 10 years. He's old enough to have witnessed all three Stanley Cup losses, as such, his prime goal is to remove those scars by seeing a Cup brought to Vancouver. Leigh is Fighting For Stanley's (www.fightingforstanley.ca/vancouver) west coast correspondent, and will also blog after all Canuck games for The Nelson Daily.

With the league at the All Star break, and the Canucks having played 49 of their 82 games (60% of the way through the regular season), it’s time to grade the team’s performance thus far, provide some insight as to what lies ahead, and consider the outlook for the rest of the year.  (Note:  grades are given without pluses or minuses, in my opinion, this is too granular to be of any use!)

GOALTENDING – B

For the most part, the Canucks goaltending tandem of Roberto Luongo and Cory Schneider has been very solid, yet unspectacular, providing the team reliable goaltending through the majority of its games.  As we are all now used to, Luongo struggled mightily in October, was better in November, before righting the ship fully in December, after a strong stint by Schneider woke the #1 netminder out of his doldrums.  Since that stretch, Luongo has been very good.

For the most part, Schneider has been very good as well, with only a couple blemishes in his 16 starts thus far, and thus cementing his status of “one of the best backup goalies in the league”, a bona fide starter (somewhere) in waiting.  In late November, Schneider stole a string of starts away from the Italian workhorse. 

Luongo had a minor injury, Schneider got a start featuring a great game against the visiting Senators, and then coach Alain Vigneault rode the hot hand. Schneider went on a dominant string of five games, recording back to back shutouts in the process, and relegated Luongo to the role of backup for the first time in recent memory.

Statistically, the Canucks sit seventh overall in the NHL in goals against, having surrendered a total of 118 goals in 49 games, for a GAA of 2.41 – a far cry from 2010-2011 when they led the league in this category.  Schneider leads Luongo in most categories, with a GAA of 2.30 (Luongo – 2.40), a save percentage of .927 (Luongo - .918),  with each netminder recording two shutouts apiece.

Since overall goals against is a team statistic, one must look deeper in assessing the goaltending thus far, and that is an inexact science.  I’ll say this – the Canucks goaltenders haven’t really stolen any games for the team thus far this year, nor have they cost the team many games either, maybe only on a couple of occasions each. 

True assessment of the netminders will only be possible after the playoffs.  As we’ve now seen Luongo melt down four times in the last three seasons’ playoffs (Chicago series three times, Boston series), at least the team has a viable, top notch backup that can come in to clean up the mess, if one exists.

DEFENSE – B

Like the balance of the team, the defense has, at times, looked very good, verging on dominant.  The top pairing of Dan Hamhuis and Kevin Bieksa has been excellent most nights.  Early in the season, these guys struggled, with a combined plus/minus rating of minus-12 through the team’s first 16 games.  In the 33 games since, however, the pair is plus-30, all the while playing against the other team’s top players.  They are both contributing offensively, as well, with 49 points combined, each player getting time on the team’s power play.

The second pairing of Alex Edler and Sami Salo has also been excellent, very steady.  Edler is bringing his physical brand of hockey more consistently than in years past, however, it would be nice to see him up the physical ante with just a bit more regularity. 

Sami Salo, at the age of 37, is a workhorse, and has remained healthy all year with the exception of the recent concussion suffered at the hands of the Brad Marchand low-bridge hit.  Edler leads the team’s defensemen with 34 points, and was named an All-Star for the first time in his career.

The reason for the overall B rating is the third pairing.  When the Canucks get into trouble in their own end, it’s invariably when the third unit is on the ice.  Keith Ballard has been consistently on this unit, with Andrew Alberts, Aaron Rome, and Alex Sulzer rotating through the sixth spot.  Ballard has played his best hockey as a Canuck, but when asked to log more minutes recently (during Salo’s injury), he makes more mistakes.  The other guys, while serviceable, are not world-beaters.  Rome was steady in his first stint off injury, but hasn’t regained his form.  Alberts is big and physical, but his speed can be exposed against the wrong players.

GM Mike Gillis may be looking to upgrade at defense.  Rookie Chris Tanev was recently called up to audition for the top-4 spot if one opens up due to injury.  Chicago Wolves coach Craig MacTavish recently called Tanev the “best defenseman” in the AHL, so he’s probably ready to play at the NHL level with regularity.  The problem here is that getting a top-4 defenseman via trade (especially at the deadline) is expensive. 

My prediction is that unless the Canucks can somehow pry Shea Weber out of Nashville (which would probably cost Edler, with Nashville not being in the market for a goaltender), Gillis will likely stand pat here, assuming he can make himself comfortable with Tanev.

FORWARDS – B

For the most part, the forwards have fulfilled their roles as expected thus far into the season.  The Sedin line is often dominant, with Henrik and Daniel seventh and ninth in league scoring at the All Star break.  Alex Burrows continue to show 30-goal potential and with these guys, he’s learned where to get on the ice to convert their passes and rebounds.  He continues to put up decent numbers, all the while getting limited time on the PP. 

This line, while great, can improve in its own end – when the other team has the puck, they can be a disaster.  Also, the twins have been struggling of late – they have the ability to be at the top of the league in points (they hold the last two Art Ross trophies), so I believe there is more there than they have been able to give so far.  It will be interesting to see if they can turn their game up as they games get tougher going down the stretch – their perceived inability to do so being exactly the most common criticism levelled at them historically.

One area of concern has been the second line.  Ryan Kesler, David Booth, and Chris Higgins are the “regular” unit, but all three have been dogged by injury.  As a result, their stats are not where they should be for players of their calibre. 

Kesler returned too early from offseason hip surgery, and struggled upon his return.  David Booth took some time to get acclimatised to Vancouver after his trade, and then just as he was turning it on, got a knee injury and was out for six weeks.  Since returning, he’s been very good.  Chris Higgins is the surprise – acquired at the trade deadline last year, he’s resurrected his career in Vancouver.  Many nights, he’s been the team’s best non-Sedin forward.  A recent staph infection has limited his effectiveness, but he now appears on the mend. 

I’m looking forward to great things from this line from here to the end of the season.

The bottom six forwards have been generally pedestrian, with a few good showings sprinkled in for effect.  Jannik Hansen’s scoring more goals, but is seeming to be less physical.  Mason Raymond returned from his fractured vertebra, and after a very positive return to the lineup has returned to his old ways and has been ineffective offensively, leading to trade rumours. 

The bottom unit is asked almost exclusively to start in its own zone, and Manny Malhotra and Max Lapierre have been pretty good most of the year in their limited minutes, although Malhotra's production has dropped off significantly from last year.  Dale Weise can skate and has provided a bit of physicality when required.

The exception to these guys is Cody Hodgson, who has been just short of spectacular.  He's currently ranked tied for fourth in rookie scoring, while playing approximately 5-6 minutes less, per game, than the other leaders.  On many nights, has made a difference by scoring an important goal.  At one point I would have though he was potential trade bait – but now, I think he’s virtually untouchable.  It would take a lot to convince Gillis to part with CoHo at this point, he's going to be very good.

The biggest concern with the forwards, as a group, is their physicality.  Many players have been brought in and asked provide this element, including Victor Oreskovich, Aaron Volpatti, Weise, and Mark Mancari and Byron Bitz, both currently in the minors.  I believe that Gillis is going to look to add some veteran physical presence at the deadline, if possible. 

Travis Moen is often mentioned as a potential, as he has Stanley Cup experience and can kill penalties.  I think this is exactly the type of player the Canucks need as they head into the playoffs. 

I find it difficult to envision a scenario that doesn’t involve Raymond going the other way.  He’s an offensive player but can’t crack the Canucks’ top-6.  He plays his third line role well, but lacks the physicality the team needs.  He’s a square peg in a round hole, and for the right return, he may be wearing a different jersey in March.

SPECIAL TEAMS – A

The Canucks’ special teams are their strength.

The power play is relied upon to produce, and it does just that, ranked #1 in the NHL.  It has struggled the last 20 games, which tells you how dominant it was in the first quarter of the season.  There are games, however, where it’s required to provide offense and it delivers (case in point, the Boston game, when it scored all four Canuck goals).

The penalty kill is ranked sixth in the NHL heading into the break.  It has also been very good, but it is a slight dropoff from last season when it finished third (although it should be noted the percentage is virtually identical to last season).

I can be a very demanding fan, but even I think it’s too much to complain about the special teams.  With this group, they are just that – very special, and the power play can be a treat to watch.

COACHING – A

Coach Vigneault’s results speak for themselves.  He’s one of the winningest coaches in team history and has had a lot of success in Vancouver.  In some ways, this has been one of his most challenging seasons, as he has had to motivate the team coming off last spring’s Stanley Cup run, which took a lot out of this group, physically, mentally, and emotionally.

While the team has had some rough patches, overall they have brought a good effort most nights in the gruelling NHL schedule.  Recently, the team has been ready to play, scoring first in 13 out of the last 15 games.

Vigneault has also treated the goaltending situation with delicacy and grace.  This is a season where we see Schneider starting to eat Luongo’s lunch a little bit, and still the coach is able to keep both guys motivated and engaged.  Schneider knows he’s ready to be a starter, but he still happily fulfills backup duties for the general benefit of the team.

Common criticisms levelled at Vigneault surround his use of certain players, as Kesler’s viewed to be playing too much while rookie Hodgson, some feel, should be getting more icetime.  Overall, I think he’s handled this particular situation well, but Hodgson’s just plain making it difficult to keep him glued to the bench – that is a good thing. 

More often than not, Vigneault’s player decisions seem to work out – starting Schneider in Boston, for example – and while they sometimes look curious, he has a knack for putting a winning combination on the ice.

Like the rest of the team, it will be difficult to gauge Vigneault until the dust has settled.  Until then, he’s turned this veteran team over to its leaders, as he steers the ship. 

It should be noted as well that his assistants have been good, as Newell Brown has coached the power play to its number one ranking, and Rick Bowness is getting a lot out of his defensemen.

FRONT OFFICE – A

GM Mike Gillis is nothing short of top notch in his role.  He has assembled a group here that will again be competitive for the Stanley Cup this spring.  While he inherited many of the pieces, he’s been the one to acquire two-thirds of the team’s second line; draft and develop Hodgson; sign Dan Hamhuis; acquire the entire fourth line; lock up many of the team’s top players for salaries less than they could command on the open market (Sedins, Burrows, Kesler, Hamhuis, Bieksa); and keep the team cap-compliant.

One angle that only time can determine is his philosophy on the physical side of the game.  As was most often brought up as a result of the Boston series, the Canucks seem to wither away when they are treated with brute force, much of it over the line, as it can knock the team off its game. 

Instead of combatting this physically, Gillis’ take is that the Canucks will “make the opponent pay on the power play”.  This works when the team’s PP is going, but when it isn’t, it can backfire.  So far this year, it’s worked, most notably in games against Ottawa, Colorado, and Boston, all who tried to take liberties with the Canucks and paid for it with losses.  It remains to be seen if this will work all throughout the playoffs. 

My bet is that Gillis hedges his position by acquiring some muscle at the deadline.

OUTLOOK

This team has been to game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final, on home ice, and lost.  There’s only one thing this team can do to be viewed to be successful, and that is to bring the Cup back to Vancouver as NHL Champions.

With that in mind, their performance this year so far hasn’t been up to Stanley Cup winner standards.  There have been too many let-downs, too much uneven play, too many bad performances against bad teams, and less-than-dominant games to say they are a “favourite”.

That said, they did struggle in the first quarter as they still nursed injuries sustained last year.  The goaltending was bad.  The defense was off.  Since putting it together, there are many nights where they look like they can get there again – they generally come to play when faced with good opposition (the Boston’s, Detroit’s, Chicago’s, San Jose’s of the league).  This is encouraging, as it seems they are on an upward trajectory. 

Also, with Schneider now option 1B in net should Luongo falter, it would appear the goaltending is in good shape.

So – the million dollar question – can the Canucks win the Stanley Cup?  There are three keys here:

1)              Can the second line ramp up and deliver consistent top-level play?  Based on a limited sample size, I think they can. David Booth is an excellent player, with great speed and he seems to fit in nicely with the team on Kesler’s wing.  Kesler’s been slower this year, but since he’s beaten up come playoff time every year, I’m hopeful he turns it on as the season nears its end and the postseason begins.  This line is imperative to team success.  Without it, the other team can focus on the twins and shut them down.  Unless scoring is coming from elsewhere, that is a horrible scenario for Vancouver, and one that they can’t overcome.

2)              Is the defense good enough?  The team lost Christian Ehrhoff last offseason and didn’t replace him.  Frankly, he was horrible defensively through most of the playoffs anyway, so while his regular season was gaudy, I don’t think we lost a lot here.  But, if one of the top-4 goes down to injury, it could get a bit dicey.  Tanev looks good, but good enough to play a regular shift against top NHL talent in the playoffs?  There’s a big part of me that would support selling the farm for a dominant, Norris type defenseman like Weber, but I just think that deal is too difficult to get done.  Look for the Canucks to add a veteran defenseman to bolster the troops heading into the playoffs.

3)              Are the Canucks tough enough?  Mike Gillis (and most of the players) say they are.  They correctly point out that a prototypical “tough guy” doesn’t play in the playoffs anyway.  But, it does seem like they can get pushed around and it knocks them off their game mentally.  Recent physical efforts from players like Ballard, Lapierre, and Weise are encouraging, as perhaps the players realize that they need to step up when required.  Still, the road to the Cup likely winds through Chicago, San Jose, or Boston (or potentially all three), and that may leave the team battered and beaten like last year.  This is a difficult conundrum for Gillis, but it’s one that he must get correct if the team is going to win.

Only time will provide the answers to these questions.  But, if the answers provided by the team are positive, then there’s a very good chance that Henrik Sedin will be the first Vancouver Canuck to ever hoist Lord Stanley’s Cup this June.