Canucks Down Predators in Shootout after Vigneault Juggles Lines

Leigh Ramsden lives in Vancouver and is an avid Canucks fan, having been a partial season ticket holder for over 10 years. He's old enough to have witnessed all three Stanley Cup losses, as such, his prime goal is to remove those scars by seeing a Cup brought to Vancouver. Leigh is Fighting For Stanley's (www.fightingforstanley.ca/vancouver) west coast correspondent, and will also blog after all Canuck games for The Nelson Daily.

The Vancouver Canucks visited the Music City on Tuesday night to play the Nashville Predators at the Bridgestone Arena.  In what is becoming a habit, the Canucks emerged victorious with a 4-3 shootout win.

Tonight’s game was one of quick strikes.  Vancouver opened the scoring on a power play goal by Ryan Kesler at 11:42 of the opening period.  Kesler beat Predators’ netminder Pekka Rinne with a snap shot that found its way between his pad and his arm.  Just 2:05 later, Nashville tied the game on a Colin Wilson wrist shot from a bad angle, which handcuffed Canucks’ goaltender Roberto Luongo.

Byron Bitz, in only his second game of the year, then took over the game (yes, I can’t believe I just wrote that).  Bitz, playing on a line with Henrik Sedin and Mason Raymond for much of the game, beat Rinne with a great finish from the slot after a nice feed from Henrik on the rush at 18:21 of the first. 

On the same shift, while playing with both twins as a result of line juggling following a penalty kill, Bitz gained control of the puck and fed a nice backpass from behind the goal line to Daniel, who had gotten free in front of the net.  Daniel made no mistake and put the Canucks up by two, this goal coming only 23 seconds after the previous one.

In the second period, it was Nashville’s turn to score a couple quick ones.  At 4:14 of the middle stanza, Sergei Kostitsyn redirected a puck past Luongo with his skate to bring the Predators to within one.  Just 1:02 later, after a horrible Daniel Sedin giveaway, Shea Weber put a puck toward the net, and Mike Fisher deflected it from the mid-slot.  Luongo fought the puck and it squeezed through his legs and dribbled into the net to even the score.  It would be the last goal of the game.

For the balance of the second period, Nashville carried the bulk of the play and pressured the Canucks into making mistakes, and generated a number of scoring chances.  After two periods, Nashville was outshooting Vancouver 28-17.

The Canucks came out and, as is their pattern, played a much better third period, outshooting the Predators 12-9 and getting a lot of pucks in scoring areas, but were unable to solve Rinne.  The game went to a shootout, where it took two posts hit by Vancouver and goals by Alex Burrows and Alex Edler before Luongo stopped Wilson to deliver the Canucks the extra point.

The story coming into this game was the jumbled up lines first previewed in the morning skate and then featured through most of the game by coach Alain Vigneault.  Based on some of his comments to the media, he’s at a bit of a loss when it comes to figuring out why the team wasn’t scoring, and he resorted to a complete shuffle of his lines in an attempt to kick-start the team. 

Most significantly, the twins were split up for much of the game, before they were reunited in the third period.  For obvious reasons, the biggest benefactor was the recently-recalled Bitz, who played a strong game on Henrik’s wing. 

The varied line combinations did not solve all of Vancouver’s problems, however, as they continued to give up an exorbitant number of shots and too many scoring chances, all while looking pedestrian in their own end many times. 

Luongo’s play was relatively uneven as well, as he looked great on a number of his 37 saves, but looked positively horrible on two of the goals that found their way past him. 

Overall, it was a small improvement over their recent outings and it was another two points – so as a Canucks fan, it’s difficult to be too upset with what happened on the ice against a very tough opponent.

CANUCKS GIVING UP WAY TOO MANY SHOTS AND CHANCES

In my last post, I touched on the fact that looking at any statistical metric in isolation can be misleading.  That said, there’s been a troubling trend with the Canucks in recent games – they have been giving up way too many shots.

In their last five games, they have given up 200 shots, or an average of 40 per game.  If you look at their last ten games, their average is slightly lower at 36.5 shots per game.  In addition, they have been outshot in eight of those ten games.  It doesn’t take an astute observer to realize that this is not a formula for winning – but win the Canucks have done, although, in most cases they have had to go to overtime or a shootout on this current stretch.

Based on what I’ve seen, I think we can look at two main factors that are causing this.  One, the Canucks defense corps has fallen into a couple of bad habits.  First, they are backing into the zone when the other team is coming over the blue line, and giving up the zone far too easily.  When they don’t stand up the other team’s forwards, they are able to get into the zone and with some speed, are able to catch the defensemen slightly flat-footed.  This has led to a number of shots against. 

Second, at the offensive end, they aren’t being as successful in the timing of their pinches.  It just seems like when they pinch, they aren’t being as consistent in winning the puck, or if the do, it’s being turned over.  This has led to a number of odd-man rushes, which again create shots and scoring chances.

The second major factor impacting the shots against this is that the entire team just doesn’t seem to be working very hard for 60 minutes per night.  Other teams have been able to outskate Vancouver, especially through the neutral zone, and that is causing some of the problems for the defense.  As the forwards aren’t coming back into the play as effectively, they have been less able to disrupt the other team’s transition game.

Without some pretty phenomenal netminding, the Canucks would be in a much worse position than they are at the moment.  They are currently seventh in the league in goals against, giving up an average of 2.42 goals per game. 

Last season, when they led the league in this stat, they gave up 2.20 goals per game.  While it doesn’t sound like a big difference, 2.20 would only put them fifth in the league this season, as scoring is down across the board.

The good news is that only hard work stands between the Canucks returning to their more stifling ways, which leads me to my next point.

WHY ARE THE CANUCKS BEING OUTWORKED?

Since the Christmas break, the Canucks have really looked like they are coasting.  While I don’t think they are intentionally taking it easy, this is a veteran team that has seen what it takes to win in the playoffs.

Canuck fans know better than anyone that the playoffs are a war of attrition.  Last spring, the Canucks ran out of gas against Boston, and the team knows it. They have been to the seventh game of the Cup Final, and consciously or subconsciously, realizing that ultimate playoff success is the goal, appear to be saving themselves for something greater. 

I think this is manifesting itself in their play, which honestly appears uninspired at times in this last ten game stretch.  This uninspired play has led to some of the problems we’ve seen:  defensive breakdowns, being outshot and outchanced, lacklustre periods (virtually every second period), being beaten to loose pucks, and on down the list. 

Perhaps most disturbing, they have not been drawing penalties, purely because they are making it too easy on the other team to check them.  The Canucks have now slipped to eight in the league in power play opportunities and tenth in power play time.

I don’t believe this is a conscious problem.  After all, they are still piling up wins and points, and at the end of the day the results are difficult to argue with.  The Canucks now possess the best record in the entire NHL in the last ten games, at 7-1-2.  While most of these games have been tied at the end of regulation, they are finding ways to win.

I am hopeful that as the team nears the playoffs, they’ll find it within themselves to ramp up the “battle” in their game, since that’s what is going to be required to go deep into the playoffs. 

GM Mike Gillis has a tough month ahead, as he must assess what he’s got and what he needs, if anything.  Since the team has been there before, I think they know what it will take and we will start to see them playing with more intensity.  If we don’t, this team will be ripe for the pickings in the playoffs.

PARTING SHOTS

Quick comments: 

• If they win their game in hand over Detroit, the Canucks would be in first place in the Western Conference.  St. Louis, with two games in hand, could also tie.
• Year after year, I’m amazed by the Predators.  They embody the concept of “team”, with no high-end scoring forwards.  Barry Trotz, the only coash in Nashville history, is clearly one of the best in the game, always doing more with less.  Back in the days of the Minnesota rivaly, Brian Burke once called Jacques Lemaire’s Minnesota Wild a “cult”.  Nashville plays the same way.
• Does Martin Erat not remind you of a left-handed Ales Hemsky?  He’s a small, shifty player, and always seems to do damage against Vancouver.
• The fourth line played more minutes tonight.  They were the only line untouched by AV’s pre-game line juggling, and I was happy to see them out there in the last five minutes of a tied game.  AV needs to work them onto the ice more consistently if he hopes to rely on them in the playoffs.  I think they are up to the task, I’d just like to see more of them.
• Kesler continues to be the engine that has been driving the Canucks recently.  He’s had an up and down season, but we are starting to see the Kesler of last year with more consistency.
• While they have had a lot of troubles recently, the twins combined for a goal and two assists tonight.  Hopefully this gets them going.
• Tonight was one of those “can’t live with him, can’t live without him” games for Luongo.  He looked brilliant for much of the game, but two of the three goals he allowed were soft.  I felt like the second one might have been the end of his night, but AV stuck with him.
• Shea Weber is unbelievable, one of my favourite players, and would definitely look good in a Canucks uniform.  Dare to dream….

Broadcast Observation of the Day:  Cool observation from the Bridgestone Arena was the live band that plays songs in the intermissions.  An interesting twist, especially considering it is the Music City. 

Also, I have to say I was impressed with the organization of the fans.  They often were heard chanting things, getting on Luongo, etc.  While that’s not wholly unique, what was interesting was that it seemed it was a large percentage of the fans, and they all chanted in unison – similar to a soccer crowd.  They have a good thing going down there, it seemed like it would be a lot of fun.

It was nice to see Dan Murphy get an interview with Bitz after his tremendous first period.  It’s been a long road back for Bitz, who has had to rehab various injuries for most of the past two years to get back to the NHL.

Looking ahead: The Canucks visit Minnesota on Thursday to play a divisional game against the Wild.